The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary has forecasted that U.S. health spending will hit $8.6 trillion by 2033. That amounts to just over one-fifth of gross domestic product. CMS attributes its forecast to factors such as a rapidly aging population and high demand for healthcare. The forecast predicts that health expenditures will increase an average of 5.8% per year from 2024 to 2033 – outpacing economic growth projected to increase 4.3% annually over the coming decade. Per the CMS report, health spending increased 8.2% in 2024 to $5.3 trillion, after a 7.5% increase in 2023 and 6.4% in 2022. Medicare spending is projected to grow the most sharply through 2033 as the youngest baby boomers age into the program through 2029. [Modern Healthcare, June 2025]
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